TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050107
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118113115––––
Martin Sulc
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 65.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 40–10 Martin Sulc Martin Sulc has won 10 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-10 in 50
Vonasek
Correct
gap of 30 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1589 vs Sulc 1557
Vonasek
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 60% vs Sulc 40%
Vonasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 50% vs Sulc 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek +3 · Sulc -2
Vonasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Vonasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.40 / Sulc 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Vonasek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13050107
Vonasek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 81 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Sulc2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek9wins
AwaySulc1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek100%7 of 7
AwaySulc33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek7Sulc3n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S2Vonasek6Sulc4n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S3Vonasek9Sulc1n = 10Vonasek took 9 of 10
S4Vonasek5Sulc1n = 6Vonasek took 5 of 6
S5Vonasek2Sulc1n = 3Vonasek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekSulcV − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.030.6+10.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekSulcBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 717 vs 338 / 64449.1%52.5%352 / 717 vs 338 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcVonasek 1.40/Sulc 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.1%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 09:25J. Vonasek—1111113M. Sulc—4780
WJul 24 · 08:55J. Vonasek—11711123M. Sulc—6116101
WJun 23 · 21:30J. Vonasek—61112113M. Sulc—1141081
WJun 23 · 19:20J. Vonasek—1111113M. Sulc—9280
WJun 10 · 21:18J. Vonasek—11911113M. Sulc—611981
WJun 10 · 20:20J. Vonasek—1111113M. Sulc—8550
WJun 8 · 20:20J. Vonasek—117118143M. Sulc—311511122
LJun 7 · 20:20J. Vonasek—991111112M. Sulc—111175133
WJun 1 · 19:50J. Vonasek—1111113M. Sulc—7440
WMay 25 · 20:20J. Vonasek—8111111123M. Sulc—115137102
J. Vonasek10
WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113
M. Sulc10
LSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113WSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113LSep 6 · 18:20M. Sulc2.5051181192D. Hyza1.50119118113LSep 2 · 21:20M. Kulisek1.551111127123M. Sulc2.30531411102LSep 2 · 20:20O. Fiklik1.671211113M. Sulc2.1010780LSep 2 · 19:50M. Brozek1.4012118113M. Sulc2.751061191LSep 2 · 18:50M. Sulc2.20125571M. Kulisek1.61101111113LAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641LAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160
Upcoming Matches
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M. Sulc
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