TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13052002
Played Sep 1Finished
Jiri Cerny
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412115911115––
Petr Moravec
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:01 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 78 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Petr Moravec at 54.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 10–10 Petr Moravec Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:01What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1539 vs Moravec 1570
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 80% vs Moravec 40%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 50% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +2 · Moravec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 2.00 / Moravec 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13052002
Cerny2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Moravec1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 38 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it74% 26 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny6Moravec4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Cerny6Moravec4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Cerny3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Cerny4Moravec3n = 7Cerny took 4 of 7
S5Cerny1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyMoravecC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.4+2.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 164 vs 101 / 19845.1%51%74 / 164 vs 101 / 198Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecCerny 2.00/Moravec 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny—14119113P. Moravec—1251151
WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny—1111113P. Moravec—8590
LAug 3 · 15:25J. Cerny—11915782P. Moravec—4111311113
LJul 28 · 15:20J. Cerny—9111191P. Moravec—11613113
LApr 14 · 18:19J. Cerny—715100P. Moravec—1117123
WApr 14 · 16:55J. Cerny—11115113P. Moravec—951171
LApr 13 · 16:55J. Cerny—1011100P. Moravec—1213123
WMar 24 · 17:25J. Cerny—121189113P. Moravec—106111182
LMar 17 · 19:40J. Cerny—11581162P. Moravec—511119113
WMar 17 · 17:55J. Cerny—131111113P. Moravec—158581
J. Cerny10
WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 16:50J. Cerny1.67911128113V. Jr2.10118101132WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372LAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113LAug 18 · 15:55J. Cerny1.731177111M. Sochor2.0081111133
P. Moravec10
WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 24 · 18:39M. Sulc1.441111108113P. Moravec2.6367121152WAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113LAug 24 · 16:25M. Sulc1.441112113P. Moravec2.6341050
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