TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071243
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Hrncir
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121161158111614
Petr Moravec
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Hrncir above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 16-14
Point 104 set 5, 16-14 — our read held Petr Moravec at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hrncir 4–5 Petr Moravec Jan Hrncir has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrncir 1459 vs Moravec 1580
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrncir 60% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrncir 50% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrncir +3 · Moravec +2
Hrncir
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrncir 1.91 / Moravec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13071243
Hrncir1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog53% won 10 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back50% 3 of 6
Moravec1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 39 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHrncir4wins
AwayMoravec5wins
5 of 9 to a deciderMoravec leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrncir75%3 of 4
AwayMoravec80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrncir4Moravec5n = 9Moravec took 5 of 9
S2Hrncir6Moravec3n = 9Hrncir took 6 of 9
S3Hrncir5Moravec4n = 9Hrncir took 5 of 9
S4Hrncir2Moravec5n = 7Moravec took 5 of 7
S5Hrncir2Moravec3n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricHrncirMoravecH − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match40.641.2−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrncirMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 196 vs 102 / 19953.6%51.3%105 / 196 vs 102 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecHrncir 1.91/Moravec 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 19 · 18:23J. Hrncir—1111811113P. Moravec—81311672
LJun 19 · 15:25J. Hrncir—511114102P. Moravec—113911123
WMay 22 · 14:50J. Hrncir—311114113P. Moravec—11791162
LApr 30 · 16:55J. Hrncir—95110P. Moravec—1111133
LMar 13 · 19:05J. Hrncir—116129102P. Moravec—5111011123
WMar 13 · 16:25J. Hrncir—1112153P. Moravec—610130
LMar 6 · 17:25J. Hrncir—91111792P. Moravec—114511113
LJan 28 · 20:55J. Hrncir—712691P. Moravec—111011113
WNov 7 · 16:20J. Hrncir—11117113P. Moravec—991191
J. Hrncir10
LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970LAug 17 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8391211113J. Hrncir1.831110381WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hendrych2.20961161J. Hrncir1.6111119113LAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113LAug 12 · 19:55D. Sykora1.80411117113J. Hrncir1.9111861182
P. Moravec10
WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 24 · 18:39M. Sulc1.441111108113P. Moravec2.6367121152WAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113LAug 24 · 16:25M. Sulc1.441112113P. Moravec2.6341050
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