TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12410939
Played Aug 12Finished
Jan Hrncir
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119311611611––
Ondrej Varecka
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeOndrej Varecka to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Hrncir above · Ondrej Varecka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 68 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Varecka at 55.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hrncir 1–1 Ondrej Varecka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Varecka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hrncir 1466 vs Varecka 1494
Varecka
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrncir 60% vs Varecka 40%
Hrncir
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrncir 50% vs Varecka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrncir -2 · Varecka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Varecka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrncir 2.10 / Varecka 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Varecka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12410939
Hrncir2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 9 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back50% 3 of 6
Varecka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 92 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it74% 66 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHrncir1wins
AwayVarecka1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHrncirVareckaH − VBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.542.0−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrncirVareckaBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 193 vs 124 / 22053.9%56.4%104 / 193 vs 124 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VareckaHrncir 2.10/Varecka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Varecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Varecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 30 · 20:50J. Hrncir—1011117113O. Varecka—12591182
LJul 17 · 19:55J. Hrncir—115721O. Varecka—61111113
J. Hrncir10
LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970LAug 17 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8391211113J. Hrncir1.831110381WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hendrych2.20961161J. Hrncir1.6111119113LAug 12 · 19:55D. Sykora1.80411117113J. Hrncir1.9111861182
O. Varecka10
LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Jr1.831111113WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113WAug 13 · 12:55D. Sochor1.8094110O. Varecka1.911111133WAug 13 · 12:25A. Langer1.53911381O. Varecka2.3811711113LAug 13 · 11:25O. Varecka2.006270M. Sulc1.731111113LAug 12 · 22:30O. Varecka1.601011641D. Sykora2.2012311113WAug 12 · 20:25O. Varecka1.73891111113J. Hendrych2.0011119592
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