TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12427541
Played Aug 14Finished
Ondrej Varecka
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911811––––
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Varecka above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Varecka 7–12 Vaclav Hejda Jr Ondrej Varecka has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Jr
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecka 1461 vs Jr 1589
Jr
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecka 60% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecka 60% vs Jr 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecka +3 · Jr +1
Varecka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecka 1.83 / Jr 1.83
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Jr)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12427541
Varecka1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Jr1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecka4wins
AwayJr6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecka60%3 of 5
AwayJr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecka5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Varecka4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Varecka5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Varecka3Jr3n = 6split evenly
S5Varecka2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVareckaJrV − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.0−1.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVareckaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 230 vs 370 / 77555.7%47.7%128 / 230 vs 370 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrVarecka 1.83/Jr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka—9980V. Jr—1111113
LAug 10 · 10:50O. Varecka—5190V. Jr—1111113
LAug 5 · 14:20O. Varecka—11711972V. Jr—611811113
LAug 2 · 10:40O. Varecka—211381V. Jr—11911113
WAug 2 · 08:55O. Varecka—9111012113V. Jr—115121062
WAug 1 · 18:34O. Varecka—1111113V. Jr—7740
WAug 1 · 15:25O. Varecka—1111173V. Jr—89150
LJul 29 · 09:58O. Varecka—119111162V. Jr—131147113
LJul 29 · 08:55O. Varecka—118911112V. Jr—911114133
WJul 28 · 14:10O. Varecka—118116113V. Jr—91171192
O. Varecka10
LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113WAug 13 · 12:55D. Sochor1.8094110O. Varecka1.911111133WAug 13 · 12:25A. Langer1.53911381O. Varecka2.3811711113LAug 13 · 11:25O. Varecka2.006270M. Sulc1.731111113LAug 12 · 22:30O. Varecka1.601011641D. Sykora2.2012311113WAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113WAug 12 · 20:25O. Varecka1.73891111113J. Hendrych2.0011119592
V. Jr10
LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113WSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113WAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641WAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160
Upcoming Matches
O. Varecka
Nothing scheduled
V. Jr
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