TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12415019
Played Aug 13Finished
Ales Langer
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117311811––
Ondrej Varecka
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:01 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Langer above · Ondrej Varecka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ales Langer at 62.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 7–5 Ondrej Varecka Ondrej Varecka has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:01What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Langer
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Langer
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1476 vs Varecka 1490
Varecka
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Varecka 60%
Varecka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 50% vs Varecka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -1 · Varecka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Langer) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.53 / Varecka 2.38
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Langer)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12415019
Langer1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 63 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59
Varecka2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog54% won 29 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back35% 8 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger5wins
AwayVarecka5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger66.7%4 of 6
AwayVarecka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer6Varecka4n = 10Langer took 6 of 10
S2Langer3Varecka7n = 10Varecka took 7 of 10
S3Langer5Varecka5n = 10split evenly
S4Langer2Varecka3n = 5Varecka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerVareckaL − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.135.6−1.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerVareckaBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 515 vs 125 / 22348.4%56.1%249 / 515 vs 125 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LangerLanger 1.53/Varecka 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.8%
Langer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Varecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 08:25A. Langer—5840O. Varecka—1111113
LAug 1 · 16:55A. Langer—10970O. Varecka—1211113
WJul 29 · 06:55A. Langer—1110158113O. Varecka—712131152
WJul 28 · 12:25A. Langer—11711113O. Varecka—711891
LJul 27 · 09:25A. Langer—1561081O. Varecka—131112113
LJul 19 · 15:50A. Langer—11760O. Varecka—1311113
WJul 2 · 09:25A. Langer—1111113O. Varecka—6730
WJun 16 · 09:25A. Langer—1314113O. Varecka—111290
LJun 9 · 12:55A. Langer—115491O. Varecka—81111113
WMay 19 · 14:15A. Langer—61111123O. Varecka—1186101
A. Langer10
WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133LSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113LSep 2 · 10:20A. Langer2.3871181142A. Rek1.53113117113LSep 1 · 14:05O. Fiklik1.68713611113A. Langer2.05111111692LSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer2.2591111872A. Rek1.57117811113
O. Varecka10
LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Jr1.831111113WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113WAug 13 · 12:55D. Sochor1.8094110O. Varecka1.911111133LAug 13 · 11:25O. Varecka2.006270M. Sulc1.731111113LAug 12 · 22:30O. Varecka1.601011641D. Sykora2.2012311113WAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113WAug 12 · 20:25O. Varecka1.73891111113J. Hendrych2.0011119592
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