TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12414961
Played Aug 13Finished
Ondrej Varecka
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611211711––––
Martin Sulc
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Sulc to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Varecka above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 48 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Martin Sulc at 58.6%
48 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Varecka 5–5 Martin Sulc Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecka 1521 vs Sulc 1523
Sulc
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecka 60% vs Sulc 80%
Sulc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecka 50% vs Sulc 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecka -1 · Sulc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulc) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecka 2.00 / Sulc 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sulc)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12414961
Varecka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog54% won 29 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back35% 8 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Sulc1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 63 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it74% 43 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecka5wins
AwaySulc5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecka83.3%5 of 6
AwaySulc100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecka6Sulc4n = 10Varecka took 6 of 10
S2Varecka6Sulc4n = 10Varecka took 6 of 10
S3Varecka5Sulc5n = 10split evenly
S4Varecka1Sulc2n = 3Sulc took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVareckaSulcV − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.932.6−0.7per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVareckaSulcBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 226 vs 335 / 65356.6%51.3%128 / 226 vs 335 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcVarecka 2.00/Sulc 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 11:25O. Varecka—6270M. Sulc—1111113
LAug 10 · 13:20O. Varecka—9690M. Sulc—1111113
LAug 10 · 11:50O. Varecka—1211831M. Sulc—14911113
WAug 1 · 16:25O. Varecka—13125113M. Sulc—11101151
LJul 29 · 07:55O. Varecka—7870M. Sulc—1111113
WJul 28 · 12:55O. Varecka—1111113M. Sulc—9580
WJul 27 · 07:25O. Varecka—1112113M. Sulc—61060
WJul 24 · 10:10O. Varecka—1112113M. Sulc—61090
LJul 24 · 06:55O. Varecka—116118132M. Sulc—911911153
WJul 21 · 09:25O. Varecka—1111113M. Sulc—7590
O. Varecka10
LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Jr1.831111113WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113WAug 13 · 12:55D. Sochor1.8094110O. Varecka1.911111133WAug 13 · 12:25A. Langer1.53911381O. Varecka2.3811711113LAug 12 · 22:30O. Varecka1.601011641D. Sykora2.2012311113WAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113WAug 12 · 20:25O. Varecka1.73891111113J. Hendrych2.0011119592
M. Sulc10
LSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113WSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113LSep 6 · 18:20M. Sulc2.5051181192D. Hyza1.50119118113LSep 2 · 21:20M. Kulisek1.551111127123M. Sulc2.30531411102LSep 2 · 20:20O. Fiklik1.671211113M. Sulc2.1010780LSep 2 · 19:50M. Brozek1.4012118113M. Sulc2.751061191LSep 2 · 18:50M. Sulc2.20125571M. Kulisek1.61101111113LAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641LAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Varecka
Nothing scheduled
M. Sulc
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