TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12411031
Played Aug 12Finished
Ondrej Varecka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911119115119
Jan Hendrych
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJan Hendrych to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Varecka above · Jan Hendrych below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jan Hendrych at 54.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Varecka 3–4 Jan Hendrych Ondrej Varecka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varecka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecka 1481 vs Hendrych 1558
Hendrych
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecka 20% vs Hendrych 60%
Hendrych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecka 30% vs Hendrych 60%
Hendrych
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecka +1 · Hendrych +3
Hendrych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hendrych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecka 1.73 / Hendrych 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hendrych)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12411031
Varecka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 92 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it74% 66 of 89
Hendrych2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 60 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVarecka3wins
AwayHendrych4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderHendrych leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVareckan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHendrych80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecka2Hendrych5n = 7Hendrych took 5 of 7
S2Varecka3Hendrych4n = 7Hendrych took 4 of 7
S3Varecka5Hendrych2n = 7Varecka took 5 of 7
S4Varecka1Hendrych5n = 6Hendrych took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVareckaHendrychV − HBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match39.338.7+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVareckaHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 219 vs 275 / 55156.2%49.9%123 / 219 vs 275 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HendrychVarecka 1.73/Hendrych 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Hendrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Varecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 30 · 18:20O. Varecka—11101191J. Hendrych—13125113
LJul 17 · 22:25O. Varecka—9101151J. Hendrych—11128113
WJul 17 · 20:55O. Varecka—1111107113J. Hendrych—68121182
WJul 15 · 16:20O. Varecka—911711113J. Hendrych—11511542
LJul 10 · 16:25O. Varecka—541181J. Hendrych—11117113
LMay 5 · 18:30O. Varecka—971191J. Hendrych—11117113
WMay 5 · 16:25O. Varecka—1114113J. Hendrych—61290
O. Varecka10
LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Jr1.831111113WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113WAug 13 · 12:55D. Sochor1.8094110O. Varecka1.911111133WAug 13 · 12:25A. Langer1.53911381O. Varecka2.3811711113LAug 13 · 11:25O. Varecka2.006270M. Sulc1.731111113LAug 12 · 22:30O. Varecka1.601011641D. Sykora2.2012311113WAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113
J. Hendrych10
LAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251LAug 31 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.679790J. Dvorak2.101111113LAug 28 · 18:47J. Hendrych1.806111091A. Langer1.9011912113WAug 28 · 16:20J. Hendrych1.9110111614113M. Sochor1.80126141692WAug 28 · 15:20J. Hendrych2.75614711113M. Sulc1.40111211692WAug 28 · 14:20J. Hendrych2.201111113A. Langer1.619830WAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.00631171J. Hendrych1.7311119113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.