TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12447586
Played Aug 17Finished
Dominik Tichy
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210113118––
Jan Hrncir
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:01 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Tichy above · Jan Hrncir below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Hrncir at 57.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Tichy 1–0 Jan Hrncir Jan Hrncir has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:01What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hrncir
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1500 vs Hrncir 1453
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 20% vs Hrncir 40%
Hrncir
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 30% vs Hrncir 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy -2 · Hrncir +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tichy) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrncir form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.83 / Hrncir 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tichy)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12447586
Tichy1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Hrncir1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTichy1wins
AwayHrncir0wins
Tichy leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTichyHrncirT − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.025.0+18.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 229 vs 102 / 19165.9%53.4%151 / 229 vs 102 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyTichy 1.83/Hrncir 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 23 · 16:50D. Tichy—111110113J. Hrncir—631241
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143
J. Hrncir10
LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hendrych2.20961161J. Hrncir1.6111119113LAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113LAug 12 · 19:55D. Sykora1.80411117113J. Hrncir1.9111861182
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.