TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12416364
Played Aug 12Finished
Jan Hendrych
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611119611––
Jan Hrncir
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Hendrych above · Jan Hrncir below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jan Hrncir at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hendrych 10–12 Jan Hrncir Jan Hendrych has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hrncir
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Hrncir
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hendrych 1532 vs Hrncir 1446
Hendrych
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hendrych 40% vs Hrncir 60%
Hrncir
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hendrych 40% vs Hrncir 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hendrych -2 · Hrncir -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hrncir)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHendrych 2.20 / Hrncir 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hrncir)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12416364
Hendrych2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 60 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Hrncir1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 25 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it65% 20 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHendrych4wins
AwayHrncir6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHrncir leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHendrych75%3 of 4
AwayHrncir83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hendrych4Hrncir6n = 10Hrncir took 6 of 10
S2Hendrych3Hrncir7n = 10Hrncir took 7 of 10
S3Hendrych3Hrncir7n = 10Hrncir took 7 of 10
S4Hendrych3Hrncir4n = 7Hrncir took 4 of 7
S5Hendrych3Hrncir1n = 4Hendrych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHendrychHrncirHendrych − HrncirBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.640.7−5.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHendrychHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 553 vs 104 / 19449.7%53.6%275 / 553 vs 104 / 194Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirHendrych 2.20/Hrncir 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 19:25J. Hendrych—911116123J. Hrncir—115811102
LJul 30 · 21:58J. Hendrych—4680J. Hrncir—1111113
LJul 30 · 19:20J. Hendrych—41371132J. Hrncir—1111118113
WJul 17 · 19:25J. Hendrych—11811113J. Hrncir—711651
WJul 2 · 18:50J. Hendrych—111169113J. Hrncir—48111172
LJun 19 · 15:55J. Hendrych—118160J. Hrncir—1311183
LMay 22 · 16:50J. Hendrych—112921J. Hrncir—81111113
LJan 7 · 20:50J. Hendrych—881181J. Hrncir—11119113
WDec 2 · 19:50J. Hendrych—1171111113J. Hrncir—91113792
LOct 15 · 21:35J. Hendrych—6470J. Hrncir—1111113
J. Hendrych10
LAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251LAug 31 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.679790J. Dvorak2.101111113LAug 28 · 18:47J. Hendrych1.806111091A. Langer1.9011912113WAug 28 · 16:20J. Hendrych1.9110111614113M. Sochor1.80126141692WAug 28 · 15:20J. Hendrych2.75614711113M. Sulc1.40111211692WAug 28 · 14:20J. Hendrych2.201111113A. Langer1.619830WAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.00631171J. Hendrych1.7311119113
J. Hrncir10
LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970LAug 17 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8391211113J. Hrncir1.831110381LAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113LAug 12 · 19:55D. Sykora1.80411117113J. Hrncir1.9111861182
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