TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12447656
Played Aug 17Finished
Jan Hrncir
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1169111113118114
Zdenek Zahradka
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:11 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Hrncir above · Zdenek Zahradka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 95 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Jan Hrncir at 62.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hrncir 1–0 Zdenek Zahradka Zdenek Zahradka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:11What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hrncir
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hrncir 1431 vs Zahradka 1486
Zahradka
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrncir 20% vs Zahradka 40%
Zahradka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrncir 40% vs Zahradka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrncir -2 · Zahradka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Hrncir) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrncir form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrncir 1.50 / Zahradka 2.50
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Hrncir)-7.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12447656
Hrncir1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 25 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it68% 21 of 31
Zahradka2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 73 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back17% 16 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHrncir1wins
AwayZahradka0wins
Hrncir leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHrncirZahradkaH − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.036.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrncirZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 193 vs 434 / 84852.9%51.2%102 / 193 vs 434 / 848Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirHrncir 1.50/Zahradka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 23 · 15:50J. Hrncir—12811113Z. Zahradka—1011691
J. Hrncir10
LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970LAug 17 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8391211113J. Hrncir1.831110381WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hendrych2.20961161J. Hrncir1.6111119113LAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113LAug 12 · 19:55D. Sykora1.80411117113J. Hrncir1.9111861182
Z. Zahradka10
WSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113LSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123LSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101WSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192LSep 4 · 18:00Z. Zahradka1.6111911592R. Jamrich2.20711811113LSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113
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