Milan Dvorak vs Jan Hrncir 3-0

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #12447619

Played Aug 17Finished

Milan Dvorak

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

1210119117––––

Jan Hrncir

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:13 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%

Graded at full time

Jan Hrncir to win

57.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jan Hrncir below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 11-7

Point 60 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jan Hrncir at 57.8%

60 points played in total.

H2H Milan Dvorak 6–5 Jan Hrncir Jan Hrncir has won 5 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 08:13

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Hrncir

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

6-5 in 11

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Dvorak 1490 vs Hrncir 1453

Dvorak

Correct

both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Dvorak 40% vs Hrncir 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Dvorak 30% vs Hrncir 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Dvorak -1 · Hrncir +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Hrncir)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hrncir form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDvorak 2.10 / Hrncir 1.67

Signal prob.42% / 58%

Edge (Hrncir)+2.0pp

TT Cup · #12447619

Dvorak2.10

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog43% won 40 of 94

Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51

Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30

Hrncir1.67

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite48% won 25 of 52

Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18

Up 1–0, closes it68% 21 of 31

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDvorak5wins

AwayHrncir5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDvorakn = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayHrncir62.5%5 of 8

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Dvorak2Hrncir8n = 10Hrncir took 8 of 10

S2Dvorak1Hrncir9n = 10Hrncir took 9 of 10

S3Dvorak3Hrncir7n = 10Hrncir took 7 of 10

S4Dvorak5Hrncir0n = 5Dvorak took 5 of 5

S5Dvorak4Hrncir0n = 4Dvorak took 4 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away550%

These 10 meetings

MetricDvorakHrncirD − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.0−3.2per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDvorakHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 344 vs 102 / 19149.4%53.4%170 / 344 vs 102 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Hrncir

Dvorak 2.10/Hrncir 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

57.8%

Hrncir · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Dvorak won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WJul 23 · 17:50M. Dvorak—111111113J. Hrncir—413461

LJul 23 · 14:20M. Dvorak—7650J. Hrncir—1111113

WMay 22 · 17:50M. Dvorak—911811173J. Hrncir—119114152

LMay 22 · 15:20M. Dvorak—8750J. Hrncir—1111113

LMay 4 · 16:55M. Dvorak—9690J. Hrncir—1111113

WMar 6 · 15:55M. Dvorak—9101111123J. Hrncir—111289102

WFeb 13 · 15:20M. Dvorak—96111183J. Hrncir—11116952

LJan 23 · 19:15M. Dvorak—11470J. Hrncir—1311113

WJan 23 · 15:20M. Dvorak—123812113J. Hrncir—1011111072

LAug 4 · 16:25M. Dvorak—121170J. Hrncir—1413113

M. Dvorak10

LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740 WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113 LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142 WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151 WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752 WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151 LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133 LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113 LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182 WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113

J. Hrncir10

LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113 WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113 WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142 WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113 WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113 WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842 LAug 17 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8391211113J. Hrncir1.831110381 WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hendrych2.20961161J. Hrncir1.6111119113 LAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113 LAug 12 · 19:55D. Sykora1.80411117113J. Hrncir1.9111861182

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