TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051816
Played Sep 1Finished
Jiri Cerny
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181311611116––
Dominik Tichy
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDominik Tichy to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Dominik Tichy at 57.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 0–2 Dominik Tichy Jiri Cerny has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tichy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1452 vs Tichy 1579
Tichy
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 80% vs Tichy 40%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 50% vs Tichy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +3 · Tichy +1
Cerny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tichy)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 2.20 / Tichy 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Tichy)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13051816
Cerny2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Tichy1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 136 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it82% 106 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeCerny0wins
AwayTichy2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderTichy leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricCernyTichyC − TBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match35.545.5−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 160 vs 164 / 25343.8%64.8%70 / 160 vs 164 / 253Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyCerny 2.20/Tichy 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 24 · 17:59J. Cerny—118571D. Tichy—81111113
LAug 24 · 14:50J. Cerny—81111372D. Tichy—119811113
J. Cerny10
WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 16:50J. Cerny1.67911128113V. Jr2.10118101132WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372LAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113LAug 18 · 15:55J. Cerny1.731177111M. Sochor2.0081111133
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372
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