TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12455462
Played Aug 18Finished
Jiri Cerny
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1187117111113––
Miroslav Sochor
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Cerny to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Miroslav Sochor below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 79 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Jiri Cerny at 54.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 23–14 Miroslav Sochor Miroslav Sochor has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-14 in 37
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1469 vs Sochor 1596
Sochor
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Sochor 80%
Sochor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 20% vs Sochor 60%
Sochor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Sochor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sochor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.73 / Sochor 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Cerny)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12455462
Cerny1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 26 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it59% 20 of 34
Sochor2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 36 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny5wins
AwaySochor5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny42.9%3 of 7
AwaySochor33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Sochor3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny7Sochor3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Cerny5Sochor5n = 10split evenly
S4Cerny4Sochor4n = 8split evenly
S5Cerny1Sochor4n = 5Sochor took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernySochorC − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.341.2+2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernySochorBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 153 vs 270 / 51644.4%52.3%68 / 153 vs 270 / 516Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.73/Sochor 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sochor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 16:20J. Cerny—129915102M. Sochor—10111113123
LJun 29 · 15:25J. Cerny—119121052M. Sochor—6111012113
WJun 15 · 15:50J. Cerny—911114113M. Sochor—11981162
WJun 3 · 16:25J. Cerny—1111113M. Sochor—4690
WMay 26 · 15:20J. Cerny—11116113M. Sochor—571191
LApr 14 · 16:25J. Cerny—11137982M. Sochor—6111111113
LApr 13 · 17:55J. Cerny—111191262M. Sochor—6131110113
LApr 13 · 15:55J. Cerny—10118101M. Sochor—12811123
WMar 31 · 16:25J. Cerny—51711113M. Sochor—1115981
WMar 17 · 16:55J. Cerny—1111113M. Sochor—7780
J. Cerny10
WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 16:50J. Cerny1.67911128113V. Jr2.10118101132WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372LAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113
M. Sochor10
WSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192LAug 28 · 18:25M. Sulc1.85101211113M. Sochor1.851210731LAug 28 · 16:20J. Hendrych1.9110111614113M. Sochor1.80126141692WAug 28 · 15:50A. Langer1.6111891392M. Sochor2.208111111113LAug 28 · 14:50M. Sochor1.80121111552M. Sulc1.80146611113WAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123WAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113
Upcoming Matches
J. Cerny
Nothing scheduled
M. Sochor
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