TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12455541
Played Aug 18Finished
Jiri Cerny
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119411311––
Jiri Volek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Volek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Jiri Volek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Jiri Volek at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 3–4 Jiri Volek Jiri Cerny has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Volek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1452 vs Volek 1541
Volek
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Volek 60%
Volek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 20% vs Volek 60%
Volek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Volek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Volek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 2.00 / Volek 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Volek)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12455541
Cerny2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 8 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back43% 3 of 7
Volek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeCerny3wins
AwayVolek4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderVolek leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny66.7%2 of 3
AwayVolek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny3Volek4n = 7Volek took 4 of 7
S2Cerny4Volek3n = 7Cerny took 4 of 7
S3Cerny2Volek5n = 7Volek took 5 of 7
S4Cerny1Volek4n = 5Volek took 4 of 5
S5Cerny2Volek1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricCernyVolekC − VBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.341.6−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyVolekBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 155 vs 38 / 8043.9%47.5%68 / 155 vs 38 / 80Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolekCerny 2.00/Volek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Volek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Volek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny—911431J. Volek—11911113
WJan 20 · 17:55J. Cerny—11118123J. Volek—9811101
WNov 24 · 17:25J. Cerny—119118133J. Volek—311811112
LOct 21 · 15:55J. Cerny—121060J. Volek—1412113
LSep 9 · 17:25J. Cerny—7540J. Volek—1111113
LAug 19 · 16:25J. Cerny—11114952J. Volek—691111113
WAug 14 · 15:25J. Cerny—1011114133J. Volek—128711112
J. Cerny10
WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 16:50J. Cerny1.67911128113V. Jr2.10118101132WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372LAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113LAug 18 · 15:55J. Cerny1.731177111M. Sochor2.0081111133
J. Volek10
LAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123LAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113WAug 24 · 15:55J. Volek1.91117911113M. Sochor1.8091111682LAug 24 · 14:55J. Volek2.3871112962M. Sulc1.531161011113WAug 18 · 18:35J. Volek1.50116211123M. Dvorak2.50711117102WAug 18 · 16:25M. Dvorak2.2512770J. Volek1.571411113WAug 18 · 15:25J. Volek2.0015611113M. Sochor1.731311391LAug 11 · 18:30P. Moravec1.731111113J. Volek2.009930LAug 11 · 16:55J. Volek1.8010640P. Moravec1.911211113WAug 11 · 15:55J. Volek1.73116811113J. Hendrych2.0071111572
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