TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13002148
Played Aug 24Finished
Jiri Volek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411711––––
Petr Moravec
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Volek above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Petr Moravec at 59.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Volek 3–5 Petr Moravec Jiri Volek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Moravec
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volek 1553 vs Moravec 1588
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volek 80% vs Moravec 60%
Volek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volek 70% vs Moravec 50%
Volek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volek +1 · Moravec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolek 2.25 / Moravec 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Moravec)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #13002148
Volek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Moravec1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 36 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVolek3wins
AwayMoravec5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMoravec leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolek50%2 of 4
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volek4Moravec4n = 8split evenly
S2Volek3Moravec5n = 8Moravec took 5 of 8
S3Volek4Moravec4n = 8split evenly
S4Volek2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricVolekMoravecV − MBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match36.039.1−3.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 82 vs 98 / 19247.6%51%39 / 82 vs 98 / 192Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecVolek 2.25/Moravec 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.9%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 11 · 18:30J. Volek—9930P. Moravec—1111113
LAug 11 · 16:55J. Volek—10640P. Moravec—1211113
LMar 20 · 19:38J. Volek—5910P. Moravec—1111113
LMar 20 · 16:25J. Volek—1211101572P. Moravec—1071217113
WFeb 6 · 18:55J. Volek—61111103P. Moravec—118871
WFeb 6 · 17:55J. Volek—1111173P. Moravec—89150
LJan 28 · 20:25J. Volek—1211141082P. Moravec—10131212113
WNov 12 · 16:25J. Volek—11611173P. Moravec—2114151
J. Volek10
LAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123WAug 24 · 15:55J. Volek1.91117911113M. Sochor1.8091111682LAug 24 · 14:55J. Volek2.3871112962M. Sulc1.531161011113WAug 18 · 18:35J. Volek1.50116211123M. Dvorak2.50711117102WAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113WAug 18 · 16:25M. Dvorak2.2512770J. Volek1.571411113WAug 18 · 15:25J. Volek2.0015611113M. Sochor1.731311391LAug 11 · 18:30P. Moravec1.731111113J. Volek2.009930LAug 11 · 16:55J. Volek1.8010640P. Moravec1.911211113WAug 11 · 15:55J. Volek1.73116811113J. Hendrych2.0071111572
P. Moravec10
WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113WAug 11 · 18:30P. Moravec1.731111113J. Volek2.009930WAug 11 · 16:55J. Volek1.8010640P. Moravec1.911211113
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