TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071367
Played Sep 3Finished
Matej Beran
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116911311––
Petr Moravec
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 70 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Petr Moravec at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 2–1 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Beran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1496 vs Moravec 1580
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 20% vs Moravec 60%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Moravec 60%
Moravec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -4 · Moravec +2
Beran
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.73 / Moravec 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13071367
Beran1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 21 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Moravec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 22 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back32% 9 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBeran2wins
AwayMoravec1wins
Beran leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S2Beran1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S3Beran2Moravec1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricBeranMoravecB − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match37.735.7+2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 154 vs 102 / 19945.5%51.3%70 / 154 vs 102 / 199Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecBeran 1.73/Moravec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 1 · 01:50M. Beran—61080P. Moravec—1112113
WJul 18 · 15:25M. Beran—111011113P. Moravec—612891
WApr 7 · 16:55M. Beran—111111133P. Moravec—1386111
M. Beran10
LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521WAug 27 · 21:53M. Beran1.7211115113O. Fiklik2.00881181WAug 27 · 20:55M. Beran1.8391111113O. Fiklik1.83116861LAug 27 · 19:55M. Beran3.251291011112M. Brozek1.331011128133
P. Moravec10
WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 24 · 18:39M. Sulc1.441111108113P. Moravec2.6367121152WAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113LAug 24 · 16:25M. Sulc1.441112113P. Moravec2.6341050
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