TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13001199
Played Aug 24Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210115––––
Petr Moravec
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:18 and never touched — 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Sulc to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Martin Sulc at 62.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 17–5 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:18What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Sulc
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulc 1575 vs Moravec 1612
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulc 60% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulc 80% vs Moravec 60%
Sulc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulc +2 · Moravec +3
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Sulc) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 1.44 / Moravec 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Sulc)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13001199
Sulc1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 63 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it72% 42 of 58
Moravec2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 26 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back37% 10 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back18% 3 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulc8wins
AwayMoravec2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSulc leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc85.7%6 of 7
AwayMoravec33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc7Moravec3n = 10Sulc took 7 of 10
S2Sulc6Moravec4n = 10Sulc took 6 of 10
S3Sulc8Moravec2n = 10Sulc took 8 of 10
S4Sulc2Moravec4n = 6Moravec took 4 of 6
S5Sulc3Moravec0n = 3Sulc took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulcMoravecS − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.831.3+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime331 / 634 vs 99 / 19352.2%51.3%331 / 634 vs 99 / 193Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcSulc 1.44/Moravec 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Sulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 16:25M. Sulc—1112113P. Moravec—41050
WApr 30 · 16:25M. Sulc—1111113P. Moravec—9850
WApr 23 · 16:55M. Sulc—711118143P. Moravec—112711122
WApr 14 · 15:55M. Sulc—1111113P. Moravec—6690
LMar 24 · 16:25M. Sulc—117661P. Moravec—51111113
WMar 13 · 17:55M. Sulc—1111113P. Moravec—9370
LFeb 27 · 16:25M. Sulc—981391P. Moravec—111111113
WFeb 18 · 16:20M. Sulc—117118113P. Moravec—31161112
WFeb 6 · 16:25M. Sulc—5111111113P. Moravec—11613552
WFeb 5 · 16:20M. Sulc—11411123P. Moravec—9115101
M. Sulc10
LSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113WSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113LSep 6 · 18:20M. Sulc2.5051181192D. Hyza1.50119118113LSep 2 · 21:20M. Kulisek1.551111127123M. Sulc2.30531411102LSep 2 · 20:20O. Fiklik1.671211113M. Sulc2.1010780LSep 2 · 19:50M. Brozek1.4012118113M. Sulc2.751061191LSep 2 · 18:50M. Sulc2.20125571M. Kulisek1.61101111113LAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641LAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160
P. Moravec10
WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 24 · 18:39M. Sulc1.441111108113P. Moravec2.6367121152WAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113
Upcoming Matches
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