TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13029505
Played Aug 27Finished
Matej Beran
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121091110121181113
Michal Brozek
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 107 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Michal Brozek at 72.5%
107 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 1–7 Michal Brozek Matej Beran has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Brozek
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1496 vs Brozek 1622
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 0% vs Brozek 60%
Brozek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Brozek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -5 · Brozek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Brozek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 3.25 / Brozek 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Brozek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13029505
Beran3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog59% won 13 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Brozek1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 154 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it87% 81 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it80% 115 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBeran1wins
AwayBrozek7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderBrozek leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBrozek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran2Brozek6n = 8Brozek took 6 of 8
S2Beran1Brozek7n = 8Brozek took 7 of 8
S3Beran2Brozek6n = 8Brozek took 6 of 8
S4Beran2Brozek3n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricBeranBrozekBeran − BrozekBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match32.839.9−7.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 146 vs 531 / 102345.9%51.9%67 / 146 vs 531 / 1023Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBeran 3.25/Brozek 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 27 · 19:55M. Beran—1291011112M. Brozek—1011128133
LFeb 26 · 07:20M. Beran—611861M. Brozek—11511113
LSep 18 · 12:55M. Beran—6990M. Brozek—1111113
LSep 17 · 08:55M. Beran—119721M. Brozek—81111113
LAug 16 · 21:55M. Beran—310100M. Brozek—1112123
LAug 16 · 19:25M. Beran—5970M. Brozek—1111113
LAug 1 · 14:40M. Beran—7411111M. Brozek—11117133
WAug 1 · 11:50M. Beran—951112113M. Brozek—111171042
M. Beran10
LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521WAug 27 · 21:53M. Beran1.7211115113O. Fiklik2.00881181WAug 27 · 20:55M. Beran1.8391111113O. Fiklik1.83116861
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341
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