TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12402922
Played Aug 11Finished
Jiri Volek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611411––––
Petr Moravec
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJiri Volek above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 54 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Petr Moravec at 55.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Volek 3–3 Petr Moravec Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:36What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Volek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volek 1524 vs Moravec 1604
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volek 80% vs Moravec 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volek 60% vs Moravec 90%
Moravec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volek +2 · Moravec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Volek) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolek 1.80 / Moravec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Volek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12402922
Volek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Moravec1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 26 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVolek3wins
AwayMoravec3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolek50%2 of 4
AwayMoravecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volek4Moravec2n = 6Volek took 4 of 6
S2Volek3Moravec3n = 6split evenly
S3Volek4Moravec2n = 6Volek took 4 of 6
S4Volek2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricVolekMoravecV − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.241.0+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 135 vs 91 / 18044.4%50.6%60 / 135 vs 91 / 180Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecVolek 1.80/Moravec 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Volek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LMar 20 · 19:38J. Volek—5910P. Moravec—1111113
LMar 20 · 16:25J. Volek—1211101572P. Moravec—1071217113
WFeb 6 · 18:55J. Volek—61111103P. Moravec—118871
WFeb 6 · 17:55J. Volek—1111173P. Moravec—89150
LJan 28 · 20:25J. Volek—1211141082P. Moravec—10131212113
WNov 12 · 16:25J. Volek—11611173P. Moravec—2114151
J. Volek10
LAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123LAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113WAug 24 · 15:55J. Volek1.91117911113M. Sochor1.8091111682LAug 24 · 14:55J. Volek2.3871112962M. Sulc1.531161011113WAug 18 · 18:35J. Volek1.50116211123M. Dvorak2.50711117102WAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113WAug 18 · 16:25M. Dvorak2.2512770J. Volek1.571411113WAug 18 · 15:25J. Volek2.0015611113M. Sochor1.731311391LAug 11 · 18:30P. Moravec1.731111113J. Volek2.009930WAug 11 · 15:55J. Volek1.73116811113J. Hendrych2.0071111572
P. Moravec10
WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113WAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113WAug 11 · 18:30P. Moravec1.731111113J. Volek2.009930
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