TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12455496
Played Aug 18Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214711711––––
Jiri Volek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Volek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jiri Volek below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 62 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jiri Volek at 58.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 1–2 Jiri Volek Milan Dvorak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:38What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Volek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1510 vs Volek 1518
Volek
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Volek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 60% vs Volek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Volek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Volek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.25 / Volek 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Volek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12455496
Dvorak2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 41 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Volek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDvorak1wins
AwayVolek2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderVolek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak33.3%1 of 3
AwayVolekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak3Volek0n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
S2Dvorak0Volek3n = 3Volek took 3 of 3
S3Dvorak1Volek2n = 3Volek took 2 of 3
S4Dvorak3Volek0n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDvorakVolekD − VBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match42.742.70.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakVolekBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 346 vs 36 / 8049.7%45%172 / 346 vs 36 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolekDvorak 2.25/Volek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Volek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Volek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LMar 20 · 17:25M. Dvorak—14561172J. Volek—1211113113
LJul 14 · 18:25M. Dvorak—118311102J. Volek—611118123
WJul 14 · 16:25M. Dvorak—11911113J. Volek—711771
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113
J. Volek10
LAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123LAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113WAug 24 · 15:55J. Volek1.91117911113M. Sochor1.8091111682LAug 24 · 14:55J. Volek2.3871112962M. Sulc1.531161011113WAug 18 · 18:35J. Volek1.50116211123M. Dvorak2.50711117102WAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113WAug 18 · 15:25J. Volek2.0015611113M. Sochor1.731311391LAug 11 · 18:30P. Moravec1.731111113J. Volek2.009930LAug 11 · 16:55J. Volek1.8010640P. Moravec1.911211113WAug 11 · 15:55J. Volek1.73116811113J. Hendrych2.0071111572
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