TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044981
Played Aug 30Finished
Jiri Melichar
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7114111181214––
Dominik Tichy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Melichar above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 78 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Jiri Melichar at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Melichar 4–4 Dominik Tichy Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:05What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tichy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melichar 1549 vs Tichy 1550
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melichar 40% vs Tichy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melichar 50% vs Tichy 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melichar -2 · Tichy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melichar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelichar 1.83 / Tichy 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melichar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13044981
Melichar1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Tichy1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMelichar4wins
AwayTichy4wins
5 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelicharn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTichy50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melichar0Tichy8n = 8Tichy took 8 of 8
S2Melichar4Tichy4n = 8split evenly
S3Melichar4Tichy4n = 8split evenly
S4Melichar5Tichy1n = 6Melichar took 5 of 6
S5Melichar3Tichy2n = 5Melichar took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricMelicharTichyM − TBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set08−8of 8Avg pointsper match41.539.9+1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelicharTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 54 vs 163 / 25157.4%64.9%31 / 54 vs 163 / 251Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharMelichar 1.83/Tichy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 21 · 15:25J. Melichar—7101111113D. Tichy—11126982
LAug 13 · 15:50J. Melichar—9790D. Tichy—1111113
WAug 5 · 15:25J. Melichar—511611113D. Tichy—11711772
LJul 31 · 15:55J. Melichar—119111142D. Tichy—131169113
LJul 28 · 16:25J. Melichar—1011111092D. Tichy—127512113
WJul 26 · 16:25J. Melichar—1011911113D. Tichy—12811462
LJul 22 · 15:20J. Melichar—7880D. Tichy—1111113
WJun 29 · 14:20J. Melichar—81111113D. Tichy—114651
J. Melichar10
LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113WSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113WSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 14:55R. Jamrich2.75128751J. Melichar1.40101111113LAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220LAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570
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