TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044907
Played Aug 30Finished
Dominik Tichy
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115117––––
Jonas Kulveit
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeDominik Tichy to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Tichy above · Jonas Kulveit below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 49 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Dominik Tichy at 56.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Tichy 4–1 Jonas Kulveit Jonas Kulveit has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tichy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Tichy
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1537 vs Kulveit 1533
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 40% vs Kulveit 60%
Kulveit
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 50% vs Kulveit 70%
Kulveit
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy +1 · Kulveit +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tichy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulveit form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.61 / Kulveit 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Tichy)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13044907
Tichy1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 134 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it83% 104 of 126
Kulveit2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 14 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeTichy4wins
AwayKulveit1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderTichy leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTichy80%4 of 5
AwayKulveitn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tichy5Kulveit0n = 5Tichy took 5 of 5
S2Tichy2Kulveit3n = 5Kulveit took 3 of 5
S3Tichy3Kulveit2n = 5Tichy took 3 of 5
S4Tichy3Kulveit1n = 4Tichy took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricTichyKulveitT − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match43.635.8+7.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyKulveitBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 250 vs 156 / 33764.8%46.3%162 / 250 vs 156 / 337Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyTichy 1.61/Kulveit 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 28 · 16:55D. Tichy—11119113J. Kulveit—481191
LAug 21 · 15:55D. Tichy—1110131142J. Kulveit—712158113
WAug 15 · 07:55D. Tichy—1112115113J. Kulveit—71481172
WAug 9 · 10:29D. Tichy—111111113J. Kulveit—613851
WAug 9 · 07:55D. Tichy—1111113J. Kulveit—6360
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143
J. Kulveit10
WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit2.251310116113J. Melichar1.57111231192WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113LAug 28 · 15:55J. Kulveit1.50811361J. Dvorak2.50111111113WAug 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit1.9111412113M. Dvorak1.807111091LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871WAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit2.25712158113D. Tichy1.571110131142
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