TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035027
Played Aug 28Finished
Jonas Kulveit
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111111311611––
Jakub Dvorak
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJonas Kulveit to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJonas Kulveit above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jonas Kulveit at 62.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Kulveit 5–4 Jakub Dvorak Jakub Dvorak has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kulveit
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulveit 1542 vs Dvorak 1396
Kulveit
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulveit 80% vs Dvorak 40%
Kulveit
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulveit 70% vs Dvorak 40%
Kulveit
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulveit +1 · Dvorak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kulveit)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulveit form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulveit 1.50 / Dvorak 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kulveit)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13035027
Kulveit1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 17 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Dvorak2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 65 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back27% 16 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKulveit5wins
AwayDvorak4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKulveit leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulveit100%5 of 5
AwayDvorak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulveit5Dvorak4n = 9Kulveit took 5 of 9
S2Kulveit5Dvorak4n = 9Kulveit took 5 of 9
S3Kulveit7Dvorak2n = 9Kulveit took 7 of 9
S4Kulveit4Dvorak0n = 4Kulveit took 4 of 4
S5Kulveit0Dvorak3n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKulveitDvorakK − DBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.133.2+3.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulveitDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 341 vs 160 / 33547.2%47.8%161 / 341 vs 160 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulveitKulveit 1.50/Dvorak 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Kulveit · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 9 · 09:25J. Kulveit—1111123J. Dvorak—86100
WJun 7 · 08:55J. Kulveit—1111113J. Dvorak—6920
LMay 23 · 06:55J. Kulveit—75121182J. Dvorak—1111107113
LApr 18 · 09:25J. Kulveit—9560J. Dvorak—1111113
WApr 12 · 10:30J. Kulveit—1111143J. Dvorak—76120
WApr 12 · 08:25J. Kulveit—1111113J. Dvorak—9960
LApr 5 · 08:55J. Kulveit—591112122J. Dvorak—1111310143
LMar 15 · 10:55J. Kulveit—61191192J. Dvorak—119114113
WMar 15 · 08:55J. Kulveit—11711113J. Dvorak—711851
J. Kulveit10
WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113LAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit2.251310116113J. Melichar1.57111231192WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113WAug 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit1.9111412113M. Dvorak1.807111091LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871WAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit2.25712158113D. Tichy1.571110131142
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140
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