TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035044
Played Aug 28Finished
Jonas Kulveit
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411811119911––
Dominik Tichy
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Tichy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJonas Kulveit above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Dominik Tichy at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Kulveit 1–4 Dominik Tichy Jonas Kulveit has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tichy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Tichy
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulveit 1521 vs Tichy 1522
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulveit 60% vs Tichy 80%
Tichy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulveit 70% vs Tichy 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulveit -1 · Tichy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tichy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulveit 2.00 / Tichy 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kulveit)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13035044
Kulveit2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 13 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back33% 7 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Tichy1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 133 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it83% 103 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKulveit1wins
AwayTichy4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderTichy leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulveitn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTichy80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulveit0Tichy5n = 5Tichy took 5 of 5
S2Kulveit3Tichy2n = 5Kulveit took 3 of 5
S3Kulveit2Tichy3n = 5Tichy took 3 of 5
S4Kulveit1Tichy3n = 4Tichy took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKulveitTichyK − TBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match35.843.6−7.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulveitTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 344 vs 160 / 24547.1%65.3%162 / 344 vs 160 / 245Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyKulveit 2.00/Tichy 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit—481191D. Tichy—11119113
WAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit—712158113D. Tichy—1110131142
LAug 15 · 07:55J. Kulveit—71481172D. Tichy—1112115113
LAug 9 · 10:29J. Kulveit—613851D. Tichy—111111113
LAug 9 · 07:55J. Kulveit—6360D. Tichy—1111113
J. Kulveit10
WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113LAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit2.251310116113J. Melichar1.57111231192WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182LAug 28 · 15:55J. Kulveit1.50811361J. Dvorak2.50111111113WAug 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit1.9111412113M. Dvorak1.807111091LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871WAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit2.25712158113D. Tichy1.571110131142
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570LAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit2.25712158113D. Tichy1.571110131142
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