TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13060510
Played Sep 2Finished
Jachym Zacharda
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7118111214––––
Pavel Benes
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Zacharda above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 63 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Pavel Benes at 55.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Zacharda 19–14 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zacharda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Zacharda
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zacharda 1659 vs Benes 1714
Benes
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zacharda 20% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zacharda 50% vs Benes 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zacharda +1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zacharda) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZacharda 1.73 / Benes 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zacharda)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13060510
Zacharda1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 19 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it62% 13 of 21
Benes2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 46 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZacharda6wins
AwayBenes4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZacharda leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZacharda85.7%6 of 7
AwayBenes100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zacharda7Benes3n = 10Zacharda took 7 of 10
S2Zacharda6Benes4n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S3Zacharda5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Zacharda3Benes4n = 7Benes took 4 of 7
S5Zacharda2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZachardaBenesZ − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.637.0+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZachardaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 248 vs 274 / 57548.8%47.7%121 / 248 vs 274 / 575Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZachardaZacharda 1.73/Benes 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Zacharda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 11:25J. Zacharda—11612113P. Benes—5111081
WAug 24 · 08:25J. Zacharda—1111113P. Benes—6850
LJul 28 · 06:55J. Zacharda—611911102P. Benes—116117123
LJul 15 · 13:59J. Zacharda—9128111P. Benes—111011133
LJul 15 · 11:25J. Zacharda—11119682P. Benes—871111113
LDec 12 · 16:55J. Zacharda—8840P. Benes—1111113
WNov 6 · 10:25J. Zacharda—125129113P. Benes—1011101122
WOct 24 · 17:45J. Zacharda—111176113P. Benes—76111192
WOct 24 · 14:40J. Zacharda—1111113P. Benes—5970
WOct 22 · 18:55J. Zacharda—11811133P. Benes—9114111
J. Zacharda10
LSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102LSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292LSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113WSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113LSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113WSep 3 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.389570J. Zacharda1.531111113WSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113LSep 2 · 12:55J. Zacharda2.208260M. Cerny1.611111113
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
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