TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13060504
Played Sep 2Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13119111141012118
David Vesecky
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · David Vesecky below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Martin Cerny at 64.1%
100 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 67–53 David Vesecky David Vesecky has won 53 of their 120 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:43What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vesecky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-53 in 120
Cerny
Correct
gap of 14 in 120, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1902 vs Vesecky 1679
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 100% vs Vesecky 20%
Cerny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 80% vs Vesecky 40%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +5 · Vesecky -2
Cerny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesecky form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.83 / Vesecky 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cerny)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13060504
Cerny1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Vesecky1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny7wins
AwayVesecky3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%5 of 5
AwayVesecky60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny5Vesecky5n = 10split evenly
S2Cerny8Vesecky2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Cerny6Vesecky4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S4Cerny4Vesecky4n = 8split evenly
S5Cerny2Vesecky1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyVeseckyC − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.334.5+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyVeseckyBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 821 vs 384 / 66857.4%57.5%471 / 821 vs 384 / 668Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.83/Vesecky 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 06:55M. Cerny—1111123D. Vesecky—76100
WAug 27 · 08:25M. Cerny—11116113D. Vesecky—631131
WAug 26 · 14:05M. Cerny—11411113D. Vesecky—711381
WAug 26 · 11:20M. Cerny—411126113D. Vesecky—118101162
LAug 23 · 10:50M. Cerny—911115102D. Vesecky—115911123
WAug 19 · 06:55M. Cerny—1111113D. Vesecky—7680
LAug 18 · 13:25M. Cerny—91011111D. Vesecky—11129133
LAug 12 · 06:55M. Cerny—9119101D. Vesecky—11411123
WAug 10 · 18:10M. Cerny—411511113D. Vesecky—11711552
WAug 10 · 14:55M. Cerny—11124113D. Vesecky—5101171
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 20:55M. Cerny1.61614851M. Kulisek2.20111211113
D. Vesecky10
LSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113LSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381LSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113LSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 11:55J. Zacharda2.758911101D. Vesecky1.4011115123LSep 1 · 10:00D. Vesecky1.85511561M. Brozek1.8511711113LSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761WSep 1 · 08:25D. Vesecky1.449111011113M. Brozek2.6311212652
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