TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085103
Played Sep 6Finished
David Vesecky
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111181122111517
David Bochnak
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 15-17
Point 92 set 5, 15-17 — our read held David Bochnak at 62.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 26–27 David Bochnak David Vesecky has won 26 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-27 in 53
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1675 vs Bochnak 1852
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 40% vs Bochnak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Bochnak 50%
Bochnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +1 · Bochnak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Bochnak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.25 / Bochnak 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Bochnak)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13085103
Vesecky2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog46% won 65 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 39
Bochnak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 132 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it79% 99 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky3wins
AwayBochnak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeseckyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBochnak87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky2Bochnak8n = 10Bochnak took 8 of 10
S2Vesecky1Bochnak9n = 10Bochnak took 9 of 10
S3Vesecky4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S4Vesecky3Bochnak3n = 6split evenly
S5Vesecky3Bochnak1n = 4Vesecky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyBochnakV − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.541.6−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 673 vs 369 / 59657.4%61.9%386 / 673 vs 369 / 596Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakVesecky 2.25/Bochnak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 12:50D. Vesecky—3101111133D. Bochnak—111266112
LAug 23 · 12:50D. Vesecky—6990D. Bochnak—1111113
LAug 10 · 16:55D. Vesecky—9890D. Bochnak—1111113
WAug 7 · 18:25D. Vesecky—119411113D. Bochnak—61111892
WAug 7 · 16:25D. Vesecky—117115113D. Bochnak—81191172
LAug 1 · 07:25D. Vesecky—7760D. Bochnak—1111113
LJul 30 · 18:29D. Vesecky—15260D. Bochnak—1711113
LJul 30 · 16:25D. Vesecky—1013111192D. Bochnak—1211138113
LJul 29 · 18:30D. Vesecky—1091141D. Bochnak—12119113
LJul 29 · 16:25D. Vesecky—6811101D. Bochnak—11119123
D. Vesecky10
LSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381LSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113LSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 11:55J. Zacharda2.758911101D. Vesecky1.4011115123LSep 2 · 11:25M. Cerny1.831391110113D. Vesecky1.83111141282LSep 1 · 10:00D. Vesecky1.85511561M. Brozek1.8511711113LSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761WSep 1 · 08:25D. Vesecky1.449111011113M. Brozek2.6311212652
D. Bochnak10
WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103LSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113LSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113WSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.17611711113M. Kulisek4.5011911992
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