TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089622
Played Sep 7Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114114116––––
David Vesecky
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · David Vesecky below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 47 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Martin Cerny at 54.7%
47 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 70–54 David Vesecky David Vesecky has won 54 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-54 in 124
Cerny
Correct
gap of 16 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1837 vs Vesecky 1605
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 232 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Vesecky 20%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 60% vs Vesecky 20%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +3 · Vesecky -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesecky form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.73 / Vesecky 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Cerny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13089622
Cerny1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 170 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 81 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it84% 117 of 139
Vesecky2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog46% won 65 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny8wins
AwayVesecky2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny85.7%6 of 7
AwayVesecky33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Vesecky3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny7Vesecky3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Cerny8Vesecky2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Cerny2Vesecky5n = 7Vesecky took 5 of 7
S5Cerny3Vesecky1n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyVeseckyC − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.434.4+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyVeseckyBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 836 vs 386 / 67757.4%57%480 / 836 vs 386 / 677Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.73/Vesecky 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:55M. Cerny—118381D. Vesecky—91111113
WSep 2 · 11:25M. Cerny—1391110113D. Vesecky—111141282
WAug 31 · 14:45M. Cerny—1111113D. Vesecky—5750
WAug 31 · 10:55M. Cerny—5161111113D. Vesecky—111461352
WAug 28 · 06:55M. Cerny—1111123D. Vesecky—76100
WAug 27 · 08:25M. Cerny—11116113D. Vesecky—631131
WAug 26 · 14:05M. Cerny—11411113D. Vesecky—711381
WAug 26 · 11:20M. Cerny—411126113D. Vesecky—118101162
LAug 23 · 10:50M. Cerny—911115102D. Vesecky—115911123
WAug 19 · 06:55M. Cerny—1111113D. Vesecky—7680
M. Cerny10
WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda2.385550M. Cerny1.531111113WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113
D. Vesecky10
LSep 7 · 11:25D. Vesecky2.0011740J. Kocab1.731311113LSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113LSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381LSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113LSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 11:55J. Zacharda2.758911101D. Vesecky1.4011115123LSep 2 · 11:25M. Cerny1.831391110113D. Vesecky1.83111141282LSep 1 · 10:00D. Vesecky1.85511561M. Brozek1.8511711113
Upcoming Matches
M. Cerny
D. Vesecky
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