TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089473
Played Sep 7Finished
Jachym Zacharda
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511511––––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:50 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Zacharda above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 57.6%
48 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Zacharda 13–14 Martin Cerny Jachym Zacharda has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zacharda 1641 vs Cerny 1830
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zacharda 20% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zacharda 40% vs Cerny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zacharda -4 · Cerny +2
Zacharda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZacharda 2.38 / Cerny 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13089473
Zacharda2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 16 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Cerny1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 170 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 81 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it84% 117 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZacharda4wins
AwayCerny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZacharda80%4 of 5
AwayCerny100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zacharda5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S2Zacharda5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S3Zacharda2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Zacharda4Cerny1n = 5Zacharda took 4 of 5
S5Zacharda1Cerny2n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZachardaCernyZ − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.835.7−3.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZachardaCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 260 vs 479 / 83748.1%57.2%125 / 260 vs 479 / 837Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyZacharda 2.38/Cerny 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda—5670M. Cerny—1111113
WSep 3 · 19:55J. Zacharda—13127113M. Cerny—11101131
LSep 2 · 12:55J. Zacharda—8260M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 30 · 09:25J. Zacharda—1011671M. Cerny—12511113
LAug 25 · 14:25J. Zacharda—115101152M. Cerny—311129113
LAug 25 · 13:25J. Zacharda—5640M. Cerny—1111113
WAug 12 · 07:55J. Zacharda—1111113M. Cerny—7660
WAug 7 · 13:25J. Zacharda—1111113M. Cerny—8780
WMay 14 · 14:55J. Zacharda—1131012113M. Cerny—911121052
LMay 13 · 09:25J. Zacharda—61151142M. Cerny—118118113
J. Zacharda10
LSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113LSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102LSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292LSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113WSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113LSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113WSep 3 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.389570J. Zacharda1.531111113WSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113
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