TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13093015
Played Sep 7Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210119––––
Jan Kocab
Away
3.15
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 77.1% is still 77.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
77.1%
77.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Martin Cerny at 77.1%
61 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 22–5 Jan Kocab Jan Kocab has won 5 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cerny beat Kocab 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:57What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-5 in 27
Cerny
Correct
gap of 17 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1849 vs Kocab 1558
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 290 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 100% vs Kocab 60%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 70% vs Kocab 40%
Cerny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +5 · Kocab -1
Cerny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.30 / Kocab 3.15
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Cerny)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13093015
Cerny1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 170 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 81 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it84% 117 of 139
Kocab3.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 25 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny9wins
AwayKocab1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny85.7%6 of 7
AwayKocab0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Kocab3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny8Kocab2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Cerny8Kocab2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Cerny4Kocab2n = 6Cerny took 4 of 6
S5Cerny2Kocab1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyKocabC − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.631.0+8.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 836 vs 127 / 26357.4%48.3%480 / 836 vs 127 / 263Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.30/Kocab 3.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.1%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 13:25M. Cerny—1211113J. Kocab—10680
WAug 31 · 13:25M. Cerny—513812113J. Kocab—1111111092
WAug 30 · 07:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Kocab—5870
WAug 27 · 08:55M. Cerny—91111133J. Kocab—1139111
WAug 25 · 10:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Kocab—7670
WAug 23 · 12:20M. Cerny—11711113J. Kocab—311631
LAug 20 · 22:00M. Cerny—11911642J. Kocab—811511113
WAug 20 · 19:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Kocab—4360
WAug 16 · 17:28M. Cerny—111186113J. Kocab—94111162
WAug 16 · 16:20M. Cerny—71111133J. Kocab—1187111
M. Cerny10
WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460WSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda2.385550M. Cerny1.531111113WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103
J. Kocab10
LSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113WSep 7 · 11:25D. Vesecky2.0011740J. Kocab1.731311113LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.