TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457522
Played Aug 19Finished
Filip Marat
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1186111012811––
Ladislav Moravec
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Moravec to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Marat above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ladislav Moravec at 70.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Filip Marat 7–12 Ladislav Moravec Filip Marat has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:38What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Moravec
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marat 1463 vs Moravec 1598
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marat 80% vs Moravec 100%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marat 60% vs Moravec 90%
Moravec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marat +2 · Moravec +5
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarat 2.50 / Moravec 1.50
Signal prob.30% / 71%
Edge (Moravec)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12457522
Marat2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 59 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back39% 30 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back23% 9 of 40
Moravec1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 28 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarat2wins
AwayMoravec8wins
Moravec leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarat33.3%1 of 3
AwayMoravec85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marat3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S2Marat1Moravec9n = 10Moravec took 9 of 10
S3Marat2Moravec8n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S4Marat2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaratMoravecMarat − MoravecBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.434.8−8.4per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaratMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 542 vs 100 / 24244.1%41.3%239 / 542 vs 100 / 242Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMarat 2.50/Moravec 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.5%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 14:35F. Marat—88100L. Moravec—1111123
LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat—1161081L. Moravec—81112113
LJul 27 · 10:55F. Marat—2750L. Moravec—1111113
WJun 2 · 12:25F. Marat—31111143L. Moravec—1175121
LMar 12 · 13:55F. Marat—6980L. Moravec—1111113
LMar 11 · 12:25F. Marat—115991L. Moravec—51111113
LFeb 27 · 12:25F. Marat—5950L. Moravec—1111113
WDec 4 · 11:00F. Marat—11311113L. Moravec—811871
LDec 4 · 09:55F. Marat—9350L. Moravec—1111113
LDec 2 · 11:05F. Marat—7590L. Moravec—1111113
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111LJul 30 · 10:24P. Moravec1.52141110113F. Marat2.351291251WJul 30 · 08:55F. Marat1.839101311113A. Kral1.83111211652WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852
L. Moravec10
LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122WSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WAug 27 · 14:10L. Moravec1.5411511113B. Budik2.32711791WAug 27 · 12:50B. Budik2.6511139872L. Moravec1.438111111113WAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:20J. Sebl2.25461191L. Moravec1.5711119113LAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100
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