TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12325359
Played Jul 30Finished
Filip Marat
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91110121311116115
Adam Kral
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:44 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingFilip Marat above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 99 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Adam Kral at 57.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Filip Marat 20–20 Adam Kral Dead even across their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-20 in 40
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marat 1453 vs Kral 1593
Kral
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marat 80% vs Kral 60%
Marat
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marat 40% vs Kral 80%
Kral
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marat +1 · Kral -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kral) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarat 1.83 / Kral 1.83
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kral)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12325359
Marat1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kral1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarat5wins
AwayKral5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarat60%3 of 5
AwayKral60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S2Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S3Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S4Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S5Marat2Kral2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaratKralM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match47.245.1+2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaratKralBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 536 vs 413 / 78644%52.5%236 / 536 vs 413 / 786Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralMarat 1.83/Kral 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 5 · 22:00F. Marat—1110961A. Kral—61211113
WJul 5 · 21:25F. Marat—951111113A. Kral—11116982
WJul 3 · 10:35F. Marat—1191310143A. Kral—6111112122
LJul 3 · 08:55F. Marat—1013911112A. Kral—1211115133
WJul 2 · 14:20F. Marat—91111113A. Kral—119761
WJun 27 · 11:25F. Marat—11127113A. Kral—5101181
LJun 23 · 08:55F. Marat—10118101A. Kral—12711123
LJun 18 · 06:55F. Marat—18622111A. Kral—161124133
LJun 15 · 09:53F. Marat—81111992A. Kral—118111113
WJun 15 · 06:55F. Marat—111811113A. Kral—920991
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111LJul 30 · 10:24P. Moravec1.52141110113F. Marat2.351291251WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113LJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131
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