TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12334085
Played Jul 31Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511411––––
Filip Marat
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Marat to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 51 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Filip Marat at 61.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 8–20 Filip Marat Martin Filipek has won 8 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Marat
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-20 in 28
Marat
Correct
gap of 12 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1477 vs Marat 1465
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 40% vs Marat 60%
Marat
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 50% vs Marat 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +2 · Marat +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Marat) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 2.20 / Marat 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Marat)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12334085
Filipek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 89 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Marat1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek3wins
AwayMarat7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarat leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek33.3%2 of 6
AwayMarat75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek6Marat4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S2Filipek4Marat6n = 10Marat took 6 of 10
S3Filipek4Marat6n = 10Marat took 6 of 10
S4Filipek5Marat4n = 9Filipek took 5 of 9
S5Filipek0Marat4n = 4Marat took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekMaratF − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.344.6−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 530 vs 238 / 54043.6%44.1%231 / 530 vs 238 / 540Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaratFilipek 2.20/Marat 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Marat · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 14:25M. Filipek—111310123F. Marat—81112101
LJul 20 · 12:55M. Filipek—991161F. Marat—11118113
LJul 17 · 09:58M. Filipek—91180F. Marat—1113113
WJul 17 · 07:55M. Filipek—81211113F. Marat—1110861
LJun 17 · 12:25M. Filipek—161191792F. Marat—1471119113
WJun 15 · 08:25M. Filipek—11118113F. Marat—991181
LJun 12 · 12:55M. Filipek—88121682F. Marat—11111014113
LJun 11 · 11:55M. Filipek—116991F. Marat—51111113
LJun 9 · 10:45M. Filipek—127118102F. Marat—1011911123
LJun 9 · 06:55M. Filipek—11771182F. Marat—711117113
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111LJul 30 · 10:24P. Moravec1.52141110113F. Marat2.351291251WJul 30 · 08:55F. Marat1.839101311113A. Kral1.83111211652WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852
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