TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12325358
Played Jul 30Finished
Filip Marat
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611117811118115
Petr Chlumsky
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Marat above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 68.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Filip Marat 6–14 Petr Chlumsky Filip Marat has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chlumsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Chlumsky
Wrong
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marat 1470 vs Chlumsky 1448
Marat
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marat 60% vs Chlumsky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marat 30% vs Chlumsky 60%
Chlumsky
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marat -1 · Chlumsky +3
Chlumsky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chlumsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarat 2.63 / Chlumsky 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Chlumsky)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12325358
Marat2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 61 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back37% 30 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back21% 9 of 42
Chlumsky1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarat3wins
AwayChlumsky7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarat40%2 of 5
AwayChlumsky80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marat5Chlumsky5n = 10split evenly
S2Marat2Chlumsky8n = 10Chlumsky took 8 of 10
S3Marat4Chlumsky6n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S4Marat4Chlumsky2n = 6Marat took 4 of 6
S5Marat2Chlumsky4n = 6Chlumsky took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaratChlumskyM − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.242.3−2.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaratChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 542 vs 148 / 32144.1%46.1%239 / 542 vs 148 / 321Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyMarat 2.63/Chlumsky 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat—611811113P. Chlumsky—11711852
LJul 27 · 14:05F. Marat—11960P. Chlumsky—1311113
LJul 27 · 13:25F. Marat—11691372P. Chlumsky—4111111113
LJul 22 · 13:25F. Marat—1051311132P. Chlumsky—1211118153
WMay 4 · 10:55F. Marat—1111113P. Chlumsky—5990
LApr 10 · 10:00F. Marat—139110P. Chlumsky—1511133
LApr 10 · 06:55F. Marat—9780P. Chlumsky—1111113
WMar 23 · 14:25F. Marat—115117123P. Chlumsky—311811102
LMar 12 · 13:25F. Marat—1111511102P. Chlumsky—713118123
LMar 11 · 13:25F. Marat—111111772P. Chlumsky—913811113
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111LJul 30 · 10:24P. Moravec1.52141110113F. Marat2.351291251WJul 30 · 08:55F. Marat1.839101311113A. Kral1.83111211652
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372LJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec1.91791111113P. Chlumsky1.8011116822
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