TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12325381
Played Jul 30Finished
Adam Kral
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119117611711911
Petr Chlumsky
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 62.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 4–10 Petr Chlumsky Adam Kral has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:45What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Chlumsky
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1502 vs Chlumsky 1448
Kral
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 100% vs Chlumsky 40%
Kral
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 100% vs Chlumsky 50%
Kral
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +5 · Chlumsky +2
Kral
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chlumsky) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.25 / Chlumsky 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Chlumsky)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12325381
Kral2.25
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 93 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Chlumsky1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral4wins
AwayChlumsky6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral50%4 of 8
AwayChlumskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral8Chlumsky2n = 10Kral took 8 of 10
S2Kral5Chlumsky5n = 10split evenly
S3Kral2Chlumsky8n = 10Chlumsky took 8 of 10
S4Kral3Chlumsky6n = 9Chlumsky took 6 of 9
S5Kral1Chlumsky2n = 3Chlumsky took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralChlumskyK − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.2−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 790 vs 148 / 32152.3%46.1%413 / 790 vs 148 / 321Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyKral 2.25/Chlumsky 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 09:53A. Kral—11811113P. Chlumsky—211871
LJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral—11116792P. Chlumsky—971111113
LApr 18 · 08:55A. Kral—125691P. Chlumsky—101111113
WApr 10 · 08:25A. Kral—11116133P. Chlumsky—6711111
LMar 28 · 10:25A. Kral—11117141P. Chlumsky—71311163
LSep 20 · 13:25A. Kral—11117672P. Chlumsky—391111113
WSep 17 · 12:55A. Kral—111199113P. Chlumsky—87111172
WAug 5 · 11:55A. Kral—13113113P. Chlumsky—1191171
LJul 8 · 14:25A. Kral—781151P. Chlumsky—11116113
LJul 8 · 12:55A. Kral—61070P. Chlumsky—1112113
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372LJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec1.91791111113P. Chlumsky1.8011116822
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.