TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12307254
Played Jul 27Finished
Ladislav Moravec
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711911116118112
Petr Chlumsky
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 87 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 12–12 Petr Chlumsky Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:36What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chlumsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1427 vs Chlumsky 1478
Chlumsky
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 20% vs Chlumsky 60%
Chlumsky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Chlumsky 60%
Chlumsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +1 · Chlumsky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chlumsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.91 / Chlumsky 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chlumsky)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12307254
Moravec1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 29 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Chlumsky1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec5wins
AwayChlumsky5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec60%3 of 5
AwayChlumsky60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Chlumsky5n = 10split evenly
S2Moravec5Chlumsky5n = 10split evenly
S3Moravec6Chlumsky4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Moravec3Chlumsky6n = 9Chlumsky took 6 of 9
S5Moravec2Chlumsky1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecChlumskyM − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.340.6+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 218 vs 147 / 31738.1%46.4%83 / 218 vs 147 / 317Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyMoravec 1.91/Chlumsky 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 14 · 11:55L. Moravec—761111102P. Chlumsky—111158123
LApr 7 · 11:55L. Moravec—115881P. Chlumsky—71111113
LMar 31 · 11:55L. Moravec—14131161P. Chlumsky—16156113
WMar 17 · 13:55L. Moravec—1111113P. Chlumsky—8860
LMar 12 · 15:35L. Moravec—118771P. Chlumsky—51111113
LMar 12 · 11:55L. Moravec—13101461P. Chlumsky—151212113
WMar 11 · 14:25L. Moravec—111311113P. Chlumsky—1311771
WMar 3 · 10:58L. Moravec—611116113P. Chlumsky—11681182
WMar 3 · 07:55L. Moravec—11115113P. Chlumsky—561171
WFeb 19 · 15:10L. Moravec—1113109113P. Chlumsky—911121172
L. Moravec10
LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122WSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WAug 27 · 14:10L. Moravec1.5411511113B. Budik2.32711791WAug 27 · 12:50B. Budik2.6511139872L. Moravec1.438111111113WAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:20J. Sebl2.25461191L. Moravec1.5711119113LAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.61131050L. Moravec2.201512113
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372
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