TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044966
Played Aug 30Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121161136111210
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vodal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 92 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Petr Vodal at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 40–44 Jaroslav Dohnal Petr Vodal has won 40 of their 84 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:54What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-44 in 84
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 4 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1396 vs Dohnal 1406
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 20% vs Dohnal 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 20% vs Dohnal 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal -4 · Dohnal -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vodal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 2.00 / Dohnal 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vodal)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13044966
Vodal2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog52% won 49 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back35% 17 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Dohnal1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 116 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it71% 79 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal6wins
AwayDohnal4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVodal leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal50%2 of 4
AwayDohnal33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S2Vodal6Dohnal4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S3Vodal6Dohnal4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S4Vodal7Dohnal3n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S5Vodal1Dohnal2n = 3Dohnal took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalDohnalV − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.239.4+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 486 vs 401 / 67650.8%59.3%247 / 486 vs 401 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalVodal 2.00/Dohnal 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 10:55P. Vodal—91111113J. Dohnal—118491
WAug 25 · 15:50P. Vodal—71111113J. Dohnal—119381
LAug 15 · 14:05P. Vodal—1312111192J. Dohnal—151485113
WAug 15 · 10:55P. Vodal—11115113J. Dohnal—751151
LJul 18 · 10:34P. Vodal—113141482J. Dohnal—9111216113
LJul 18 · 08:25P. Vodal—861151J. Dohnal—11119113
LJul 12 · 14:20P. Vodal—1181241J. Dohnal—91114113
WJun 27 · 15:25P. Vodal—11115113J. Dohnal—261161
WJun 21 · 15:20P. Vodal—911611113J. Dohnal—11611662
WJun 14 · 16:50P. Vodal—81114123J. Dohnal—11612101
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 30 · 13:30P. Vodal1.73107111172J. Dohnal2.00121197113LAug 30 · 11:20T. Rein1.8371212113P. Vodal1.8311101031
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WAug 30 · 13:30P. Vodal1.73107111172J. Dohnal2.00121197113
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