TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015819
Played Aug 26Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711116811––
Frantisek Dvorak
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:02 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 64.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 1–3 Frantisek Dvorak Vojtech Koutnik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:02What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1552 vs Dvorak 1511
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 80% vs Dvorak 60%
Koutnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 60% vs Dvorak 40%
Koutnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +2 · Dvorak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 2.63 / Dvorak 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Dvorak)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13015819
Koutnik2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back33% 22 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Dvorak1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 48 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKoutnik1wins
AwayDvorak3wins
Dvorak leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDvorak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik1Dvorak3n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
S2Koutnik0Dvorak4n = 4Dvorak took 4 of 4
S3Koutnik3Dvorak1n = 4Koutnik took 3 of 4
S4Koutnik1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKoutnikDvorakK − DBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match32.839.8−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 328 vs 173 / 31945.7%54.2%150 / 328 vs 173 / 319Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakKoutnik 2.63/Dvorak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 20 · 12:25V. Koutnik—10512101F. Dvorak—121110123
LJun 14 · 08:55V. Koutnik—41070F. Dvorak—1112113
LApr 29 · 17:25V. Koutnik—6312101F. Dvorak—111110123
WApr 29 · 14:50V. Koutnik—13711113F. Dvorak—1111951
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252WAug 25 · 11:50V. Koutnik1.5061113113J. Vintr2.501111151
F. Dvorak10
LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113WAug 20 · 14:35A. Jr2.001161411112F. Dvorak1.739111213133LAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691WAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.50121110123V. Koutnik2.5010512101WAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2.7589120F. Dvorak1.401111143LAug 19 · 13:33B. Budik1.7381111113F. Dvorak2.00115781LAug 19 · 12:20J. Sebl2.1011611123F. Dvorak1.678119101LAug 19 · 11:50B. Budik1.80381211113F. Dvorak1.91111110672
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