TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12462391
Played Aug 20Finished
Frantisek Dvorak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
121011510121210––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Dvorak above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 55.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Dvorak 2–1 Vojtech Koutnik Vojtech Koutnik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:13What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1533 vs Koutnik 1613
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Koutnik 100%
Koutnik
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 40% vs Koutnik 80%
Koutnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +1 · Koutnik +5
Koutnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.50 / Koutnik 2.50
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Dvorak)-5.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12462391
Dvorak1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 48 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Koutnik2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 54 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back33% 22 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDvorak2wins
AwayKoutnik1wins
Dvorak leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak2Koutnik1n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S2Dvorak3Koutnik0n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
S3Dvorak1Koutnik2n = 3Koutnik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDvorakKoutnikD − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.031.3+6.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 320 vs 145 / 32454.7%44.8%175 / 320 vs 145 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.50/Koutnik 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 14 · 08:55F. Dvorak—1112113V. Koutnik—41070
WApr 29 · 17:25F. Dvorak—111110123V. Koutnik—6312101
LApr 29 · 14:50F. Dvorak—1111951V. Koutnik—13711113
F. Dvorak10
LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113WAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113WAug 20 · 14:35A. Jr2.001161411112F. Dvorak1.739111213133LAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691WAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2.7589120F. Dvorak1.401111143LAug 19 · 13:33B. Budik1.7381111113F. Dvorak2.00115781LAug 19 · 12:20J. Sebl2.1011611123F. Dvorak1.678119101LAug 19 · 11:50B. Budik1.80381211113F. Dvorak1.91111110672
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252
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