TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015818
Played Aug 26Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911611611––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:01 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 60.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 8–9 Vojtech Koutnik Ales Brandtl Jr has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:01What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1404 vs Koutnik 1539
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Koutnik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Koutnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Koutnik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.50 / Koutnik 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Koutnik)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13015818
Jr2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 71 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 56
Koutnik1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 32 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 22 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayKoutnik6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr20%1 of 5
AwayKoutnik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Koutnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr5Koutnik5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Jr5Koutnik5n = 10split evenly
S5Jr3Koutnik2n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrKoutnikJ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.045.4−3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 535 vs 150 / 32946.7%45.6%250 / 535 vs 150 / 329Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikJr 2.50/Koutnik 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 18:00A. Jr—11891192V. Koutnik—911118113
LAug 10 · 16:50A. Jr—11711142V. Koutnik—911117113
WJul 17 · 18:29A. Jr—713611113V. Koutnik—111111892
WJul 17 · 16:55A. Jr—511511113V. Koutnik—11811682
LJun 26 · 18:35A. Jr—1011971V. Koutnik—12311113
LJun 26 · 16:25A. Jr—1191071V. Koutnik—91112113
LJun 21 · 14:00A. Jr—1771161V. Koutnik—19119113
WJun 21 · 10:55A. Jr—812117113V. Koutnik—111051192
WJun 20 · 08:55A. Jr—11116153V. Koutnik—5911131
LMay 31 · 11:55A. Jr—14101061V. Koutnik—121212113
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252WAug 25 · 11:50V. Koutnik1.5061113113J. Vintr2.501111151
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