TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13013697
Played Aug 25Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
2.26
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811511––––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.52
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:47 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 66.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 1–3 Vojtech Koutnik Simon Matousch has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1367 vs Koutnik 1529
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 40% vs Koutnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +2 · Koutnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 2.26 / Koutnik 1.52
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Koutnik)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #13013697
Matousch2.26
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 13 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Koutnik1.52
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 29 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it63% 20 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMatousch1wins
AwayKoutnik3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKoutnik leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatouschn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKoutnik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch1Koutnik3n = 4Koutnik took 3 of 4
S2Matousch3Koutnik1n = 4Matousch took 3 of 4
S3Matousch1Koutnik3n = 4Koutnik took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMatouschKoutnikM − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match34.839.2−4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 330 vs 148 / 32647.9%45.4%158 / 330 vs 148 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikMatousch 2.26/Koutnik 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.8%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 25 · 10:20S. Matousch—111141182V. Koutnik—138118113
LAug 18 · 15:20S. Matousch—11770V. Koutnik—1311113
WAug 10 · 14:20S. Matousch—1111113V. Koutnik—8890
LAug 4 · 14:20S. Matousch—81121142V. Koutnik—119114113
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252WAug 25 · 11:50V. Koutnik1.5061113113J. Vintr2.501111151
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