TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015521
Played Aug 26Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118113811711
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 55.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 8–13 Vojtech Koutnik Tomas Rein has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1488 vs Koutnik 1543
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Koutnik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +2 · Koutnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Koutnik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.25 / Koutnik 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Koutnik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13015521
Rein2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 99 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 87
Koutnik1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 32 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 22 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein3wins
AwayKoutnik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein20%1 of 5
AwayKoutnik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein5Koutnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Rein6Koutnik4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S3Rein4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S4Rein4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S5Rein0Koutnik3n = 3Koutnik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinKoutnikR − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.243.9−4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 825 vs 149 / 32746.4%45.6%383 / 825 vs 149 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikRein 2.25/Koutnik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 14:04T. Rein—11119662V. Koutnik—791111113
WAug 20 · 12:55T. Rein—41111183V. Koutnik—1196161
WAug 16 · 12:55T. Rein—71411123V. Koutnik—11125101
LJul 27 · 18:00T. Rein—12781132V. Koutnik—1011119113
WJul 27 · 17:25T. Rein—121212113V. Koutnik—10101451
LJul 21 · 17:25T. Rein—141211892V. Koutnik—1214611113
LJul 19 · 06:55T. Rein—129921V. Koutnik—101111113
LJul 17 · 15:25T. Rein—551141V. Koutnik—11115113
LJun 28 · 14:00T. Rein—612551V. Koutnik—111011113
LJun 28 · 13:25T. Rein—5111081V. Koutnik—11712113
T. Rein10
WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252WAug 25 · 11:50V. Koutnik1.5061113113J. Vintr2.501111151
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