TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13008259
Played Aug 25Finished
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121188111412115
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 102 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 62.8%
102 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 0–2 Vojtech Koutnik Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1428 vs Koutnik 1543
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Koutnik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Koutnik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.38 / Koutnik 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Koutnik)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13008259
Jr2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 30 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Koutnik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 29 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it63% 20 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJr0wins
AwayKoutnik2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKoutnik leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricJrKoutnikJ − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match32.041.5−9.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 623 vs 148 / 32553.6%45.5%334 / 623 vs 148 / 325Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikJr 2.38/Koutnik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LApr 6 · 08:25T. Jr—64100V. Koutnik—1111123
LJan 2 · 15:20T. Jr—411127102V. Koutnik—1151011123
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113WAug 25 · 11:50V. Koutnik1.5061113113J. Vintr2.501111151
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