TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13020900
Played Aug 26Finished
Frantisek Dvorak
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012711––––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Dvorak above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 62.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Dvorak 4–1 Vojtech Koutnik Vojtech Koutnik has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1537 vs Koutnik 1546
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +2 · Koutnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.45 / Koutnik 2.60
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Dvorak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13020900
Dvorak1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 48 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Koutnik2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back33% 22 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDvorak4wins
AwayKoutnik1wins
Dvorak leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak100%4 of 4
AwayKoutnikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Koutnik1n = 5Dvorak took 4 of 5
S2Dvorak5Koutnik0n = 5Dvorak took 5 of 5
S3Dvorak1Koutnik4n = 5Koutnik took 4 of 5
S4Dvorak3Koutnik1n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDvorakKoutnikD − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.632.6+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 319 vs 151 / 33054.9%45.8%175 / 319 vs 151 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.45/Koutnik 2.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.4%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 26 · 12:25F. Dvorak—11116113V. Koutnik—671181
WAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak—121110123V. Koutnik—10512101
WJun 14 · 08:55F. Dvorak—1112113V. Koutnik—41070
WApr 29 · 17:25F. Dvorak—111110123V. Koutnik—6312101
LApr 29 · 14:50F. Dvorak—1111951V. Koutnik—13711113
F. Dvorak10
WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113WAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113WAug 20 · 14:35A. Jr2.001161411112F. Dvorak1.739111213133LAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691WAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.50121110123V. Koutnik2.5010512101WAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2.7589120F. Dvorak1.401111143LAug 19 · 13:33B. Budik1.7381111113F. Dvorak2.00115781LAug 19 · 12:20J. Sebl2.1011611123F. Dvorak1.678119101LAug 19 · 11:50B. Budik1.80381211113F. Dvorak1.91111110672
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252LAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.50121110123V. Koutnik2.5010512101
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