TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457482
Played Aug 19Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1186111191210––
Frantisek Dvorak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:39 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 62.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 11–9 Frantisek Dvorak Frantisek Dvorak has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Sebl
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1483 vs Dvorak 1579
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 60% vs Dvorak 40%
Sebl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 60% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl -1 · Dvorak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.10 / Dvorak 1.67
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Dvorak)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12457482
Sebl2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 66 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60
Dvorak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 48 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl6wins
AwayDvorak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl71.4%5 of 7
AwayDvorak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl7Dvorak3n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S2Sebl4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S3Sebl5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S4Sebl2Dvorak4n = 6Dvorak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblDvorakS − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.232.7+1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 640 vs 174 / 31646.6%55.1%298 / 640 vs 174 / 316Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakSebl 2.10/Dvorak 1.67
Miss
What we said
62.8%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 12:20J. Sebl—1211711F. Dvorak—101311113
WJun 10 · 13:55J. Sebl—118116113F. Dvorak—81101182
LJun 10 · 11:50J. Sebl—9290F. Dvorak—1111113
WJun 3 · 11:20J. Sebl—11311113F. Dvorak—911481
LMay 20 · 11:50J. Sebl—5690F. Dvorak—1111113
WApr 29 · 10:50J. Sebl—1111113F. Dvorak—6240
WMar 26 · 13:55J. Sebl—1111113F. Dvorak—7840
WMar 18 · 15:10J. Sebl—11111010113F. Dvorak—76121252
LMar 18 · 12:25J. Sebl—118461F. Dvorak—91111113
WFeb 19 · 11:00J. Sebl—71111113F. Dvorak—118931
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
F. Dvorak10
LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113WAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113WAug 20 · 14:35A. Jr2.001161411112F. Dvorak1.739111213133LAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691WAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.50121110123V. Koutnik2.5010512101WAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2.7589120F. Dvorak1.401111143LAug 19 · 13:33B. Budik1.7381111113F. Dvorak2.00115781LAug 19 · 11:50B. Budik1.80381211113F. Dvorak1.91111110672
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