TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12465703
Played Aug 20Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119611141211131113
Frantisek Dvorak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:06 and never touched — 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 111 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 60.6%
111 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 11–8 Frantisek Dvorak Frantisek Dvorak has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:06What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Jr
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1432 vs Dvorak 1532
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Dvorak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Dvorak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Dvorak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Dvorak 1.73
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Dvorak)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12465703
Jr2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 66 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back32% 29 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 49
Dvorak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 48 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayDvorak5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%4 of 4
AwayDvorak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Jr4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S3Jr4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S4Jr7Dvorak3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S5Jr4Dvorak3n = 7Jr took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrDvorakJ − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.742.7+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 524 vs 176 / 32247.5%54.7%249 / 524 vs 176 / 322Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakJr 2.00/Dvorak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.6%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr—111114113F. Dvorak—391691
LAug 13 · 11:20A. Jr—1181181F. Dvorak—13118113
WAug 5 · 14:28A. Jr—711711113F. Dvorak—11511562
LAug 5 · 11:25A. Jr—77111162F. Dvorak—111183113
WJul 16 · 08:55A. Jr—119511113F. Dvorak—81111362
WMay 27 · 12:50A. Jr—1271011113F. Dvorak—101112772
LApr 29 · 15:50A. Jr—87111172F. Dvorak—111133113
LMar 11 · 13:50A. Jr—11111131F. Dvorak—13713113
LFeb 18 · 11:20A. Jr—97111172F. Dvorak—111178113
WJan 30 · 12:20A. Jr—111189113F. Dvorak—99111182
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
F. Dvorak10
LAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein3.005920F. Dvorak1.361111113WAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113LAug 26 · 11:25F. Dvorak1.5751191182A. Jr2.25118112113LAug 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.38111114113F. Dvorak1.53391691WAug 20 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.50121110123V. Koutnik2.5010512101WAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2.7589120F. Dvorak1.401111143LAug 19 · 13:33B. Budik1.7381111113F. Dvorak2.00115781LAug 19 · 12:20J. Sebl2.1011611123F. Dvorak1.678119101LAug 19 · 11:50B. Budik1.80381211113F. Dvorak1.91111110672
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