TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035017
Played Aug 28Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811611––––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 58 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Radek Muller at 56.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 20–16 Jaroslav Dohnal Jaroslav Dohnal has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:16What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-16 in 36
Muller
Wrong
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1481 vs Dohnal 1431
Muller
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 40% vs Dohnal 0%
Muller
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 50% vs Dohnal 10%
Muller
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller +1 · Dohnal -5
Dohnal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Muller) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.61 / Dohnal 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Muller)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13035017
Muller1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Dohnal2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog19% won 4 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller8wins
AwayDohnal2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller88.9%8 of 9
AwayDohnaln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller9Dohnal1n = 10Muller took 9 of 10
S2Muller4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S3Muller5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S4Muller5Dohnal4n = 9Muller took 5 of 9
S5Muller4Dohnal1n = 5Muller took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerDohnalM − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.9+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 323 vs 400 / 66950.8%59.8%164 / 323 vs 400 / 669Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.61/Dohnal 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 22:30R. Muller—129119113J. Dohnal—101191142
WJul 24 · 21:25R. Muller—11117113J. Dohnal—971111
WJul 3 · 22:30R. Muller—111925113J. Dohnal—417111172
LJul 3 · 21:25R. Muller—513741J. Dohnal—111111113
WJul 2 · 19:55R. Muller—1112113J. Dohnal—51060
WJun 28 · 14:20R. Muller—11911113J. Dohnal—511661
WApr 21 · 21:55R. Muller—11616113J. Dohnal—7111471
WApr 21 · 19:50R. Muller—118611113J. Dohnal—71111872
WApr 4 · 14:55R. Muller—1191111113J. Dohnal—71161372
LMar 2 · 21:55R. Muller—11781162J. Dohnal—611117113
R. Muller10
LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162LAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181LAug 28 · 20:55R. Muller1.576680J. Sebl2.251111113
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162WAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181
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