TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089626
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113119119411711
Dominik Pasek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Dominik Pasek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Dominik Pasek at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 0–2 Dominik Pasek Radek Muller has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:43What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Muller 1461 vs Pasek 1429
Muller
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 60% vs Pasek 40%
Muller
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 40% vs Pasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller +1 · Pasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.91 / Pasek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pasek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13089626
Muller1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 18 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back21% 4 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Pasek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite40% won 4 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it60% 3 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMuller0wins
AwayPasek2wins
2 of 2 to a deciderPasek leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away2
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMullerPasekM − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match45.050.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerPasekBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 330 vs 46 / 10850.6%42.6%167 / 330 vs 46 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PasekMuller 1.91/Pasek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LDec 30 · 23:35R. Muller—11851342D. Pasek—9111111113
LDec 30 · 20:25R. Muller—810111192D. Pasek—111249113
R. Muller10
WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162LAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181LAug 28 · 20:55R. Muller1.576680J. Sebl2.251111113LAug 28 · 19:55R. Muller1.6110860J. Dohnal2.201211113WAug 28 · 18:55R. Muller1.93111199113B. Budik1.7775111132
D. Pasek10
WSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113WSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251WAug 9 · 10:00D. Pasek2.501211123J. Dvorak1.50109100LAug 9 · 08:55D. Tichy1.731111113D. Pasek2.002140WAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113LAug 9 · 07:25D. Pasek2.509131151J. Kulveit1.5011157113
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