TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057831
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61112101412811116
Radek Muller
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Radek Muller below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 101 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Radek Muller at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 18–20 Radek Muller Jaroslav Dohnal has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:44What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-20 in 38
Muller
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1398 vs Muller 1454
Muller
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 20% vs Muller 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 30% vs Muller 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +1 · Muller -3
Muller
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 2.00 / Muller 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Muller)+0.6pp
TT Cup · #13057831
Dohnal2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 7 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Muller1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 42 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal3wins
AwayMuller7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal100%3 of 3
AwayMuller100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal3Muller7n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal6Muller4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S3Dohnal5Muller5n = 10split evenly
S4Dohnal4Muller4n = 8split evenly
S5Dohnal0Muller3n = 3Muller took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalMullerD − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.2−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 676 vs 164 / 32559.5%50.5%402 / 676 vs 164 / 325Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerDohnal 2.00/Muller 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal—11118113R. Muller—941181
WAug 28 · 19:55J. Dohnal—1211113R. Muller—10860
LJul 24 · 22:30J. Dohnal—101191142R. Muller—129119113
LJul 24 · 21:25J. Dohnal—971111R. Muller—11117113
LJul 3 · 22:30J. Dohnal—417111172R. Muller—111925113
WJul 3 · 21:25J. Dohnal—111111113R. Muller—513741
LJul 2 · 19:55J. Dohnal—51060R. Muller—1112113
LJun 28 · 14:20J. Dohnal—511661R. Muller—11911113
LApr 21 · 21:55J. Dohnal—7111471R. Muller—11616113
LApr 21 · 19:50J. Dohnal—71111872R. Muller—118611113
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132
R. Muller10
WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181LAug 28 · 20:55R. Muller1.576680J. Sebl2.251111113LAug 28 · 19:55R. Muller1.6110860J. Dohnal2.201211113WAug 28 · 18:55R. Muller1.93111199113B. Budik1.7775111132LAug 23 · 21:28T. Rein2.63911118113R. Muller1.4411981152
Upcoming Matches
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R. Muller
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